2017 had slowest job growth for N.C., U.S. since first year of recovery

Prosperity Watch (Issue 84, No.4) 

March 26, 2018

Job growth in 2017 was the slowest since 2010, the first year in which the economy started climbing out from the Great Recession. North Carolina’s 1.6 percent job growth in 2017 was essentially identical to the nationwide rate of 1.5 percent, the slowest pace for North Carolina or the nation in seven years.

Both the U.S. and N.C. economies posted their best year of job growth in the past decade in 2014, but that rate of growth can been edging down at both levels ever since. The rate of slowdown was particularly dramatic in North Carolina last year, where we went from 2.1 percent job growth in 2016 to 1.6 percent in 2017, which represents the largest slowdown in employment growth for this entire economic expansion period.

This slowdown was widespread across a range of industries, including many of the sectors that have been key sources of new jobs in North Carolina over the past several years. Educational services saw the steepest decline, dropping from a growth rate of 5.7 percent in 2016 to 2 percent in 2017. Other industries that experienced notable declines in growth rate include Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (4.8 to 2.1 percent), Retail Trade (2.0 to -0.3 percent), Federal Government (2.0 to -0.3 percent), Construction (4.8 to 2.9 percent), and Healthcare and Social Assistance (2.3 to 1.1 percent). Overall, the majority of industries in North Carolina saw the pace of employment growth slacken in 2017.

The period of growth that we’ve seen over the past several years may come to an end before the economic recovery in North Carolina is complete. Compared to the pre-recession period when 62 to 63 percent of North Carolinians were working, we have been stuck between 58 and 59 percent over the past year. These data raise the alarming prospect that we may slide back into recession before the damage from the last economic catastrophe is fully repaired.